MOLINE, Ill. — It's not even Labor Day and here we are seeing multiple posts pop up on social media regarding our first snow chances for the upcoming fall and winter seasons. A bit early? Yes! Outrageous? Well, that depends on which one you happen to stumble upon. One in particular, that was posted by a radio station, claims forecasters are expecting a really frigid end to the upcoming month of September. So frigid in fact, that it could even bring the first flakes of the season!
So, where did this prediction come from, and does it hold any truth? Let's dig in!
"Who is already predicting September snow for Illinois and Wisconsin", is the headline that this particular post reads. Reading further into the body of the post, it claims meteorologists are predicting a cooler weather pattern in late September throughout the Midwest that will lead to snow flurries in higher elevations.
I want to give the benefit of the doubt to the original source for this information because sometimes in the news industry, non-meteorological folks have to write about meteorological events, and that can complicate things. Messages can get lost and misunderstandings do happen! I'm thinking that is likely the case here and it was worded to be more localized so that the message would get more clicks. That's usually the case.
Now, living in the Midwest my entire life thus far, I have to question where these higher elevations are. We certainly don't have them in Illinois, or in Wisconsin. So, there's that. Secondly, it takes a lot of energy to get that magnitude of cold air into our portion of the country during that time of the year. Obviously, it's not impossible, but, it is quite rare.
September 25, 1942, is the only period on record for the Quad Cities that had measurable snow during the month of September. During that particular September, an unusually cool area of air settled into the region with highs in the 30s and 40s, some 20-30 degrees below normal for late September.
A strong area of low pressure moved southeast through southern Alberta, Canada, and western North Dakota followed by a trip through southern Wisconsin. This storm produced some of the earliest snowfall reports on record for the region. Snow occurred as far south as central Illinois and far Northern Missouri with totals of 2 inches around Galesburg and an inch near Peoria.
That leaves 99.99% of the remaining September months completely snow free. So, past climatology and weather data tell us that getting snow in September is an extremely rare event. You have a better chance at winning a lottery prize than you do seeing snowflakes fly in the Quad Cities in this particular month.
Have a question that you would like me to answer for an upcoming Ask Andrew segment? Submit it, here.
Editors note: The attached news segment shows September 18, 1942, as being the one time when the Quad Cities saw snow in September. That date is incorrect and should be September 25, 1942.